Alphaliner’s report said that container trade is decoupling from gross domestic product, as the TEU-to-GDP multiplier has continued to weaken since the pandemic, with the last 10 years now showing an average multiplier below 1.
The ratio, which peaked in the 1990s and was still a robust 2.6x in the 2000s, had previously been a reliable indicator for the market, such that container trade could be relied on to expand by multiples of GDP growth.
This has changed and the average ratio of container-trade growth to world economic growth in the last decade has dropped to 0.93x, with only the individual years of 2014, 2017 and 2018 exceeding 1 by a significant margin (1.4x, 1.8x and 1.4x respectively).
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that world GDP would grow 3% in 2023 and a lower 2.9% in 2024, which are below the 3.5% recorded for 2022 when shipping volumes rose by 0.1%, underlining the increasing disconnect between GDP and the box trade.
Notwithstanding the record newbuilding deliveries in the next two years, prospects for growth in the next 18 months appear modest.
Container volumes for the world’s 30 busiest ports fell an estimated 1% in the first six months of 2023, as consumers cut back on spending amid rising inflation.
While China’s coastal ports reported a 4.1% increase in traffic, throughput at key European ports such as Rotterdam and Hamburg is now below 2019 levels, as are the combined volumes for US ports Los Angeles/Long Beach, New York/New Jersey and Savannah.
Martina Li
Asia Correspondent
