Sea-Intelligence reported that according to June 2023 demand data by Container Trade Statistics (CTS), this is the fourth month in which the global collapse in demand growth can be said to have halted.
However, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence explains that “from a supply chain perspective, we also need to account for the travelled distances, hence why we prefer to measure demand in TEU*Miles. Even though the demand collapse in TEU*Miles halted in February 2023, it cannot be said to have rebounded, as the growth rate is essentially hovering around zero.”
He added, “It could be questioned whether there was a genuine collapse in demand or whether it was simply an artifact of a skewed year-on-year calculation. However, even when we make an annualised comparison with 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year), we effectively see the same results. Of course, seen from the carriers’ financial perspective, it is the demand growth in the head-haul trades which is the most important element to global demand growth.”
The figure shows the growth in global head-haul demand. “Here, again, we see how the collapse in demand has been clearly halted, and even though it is at a low level, the year-on-year demand growth has been positive for three consecutive months now,” noted Murphy.
He went on to point out, “But, as we have also seen in previous months’ issues of the Sunday Spotlight, the global development is certainly not uniform across different deep-sea trades.”
Europe imports continue to rebound while exports continue to decline, which means a worsening trade balance and hence lower utilisation on exports and a downward pressure on freight rates, according to the Sea-Intelligence report.
For North America imports, the demand collapse is showing weak signs of abating, while exports are also in negative territory. This points towards an improving trade balance for the region.
