Shipping data analysis firm Sea-Intelligence examined the impact of the proposal by the US Trade Representative (USTR) to penalise Chinese shipping lines and non-Chinese shipping lines operating China-related vessels.
“We looked specifically at small independent niche carriers on the Transpacific, as the global carriers might have a larger exposure to this proposal, but their extensive and diverse fleet of vessels gives them a greater degree of flexibility to substitute Chinese-built vessels across their networks,” noted the Danish analysts.
In the first quarter of 2025, five Transpacific niche carriers operated 49 different vessels, of which only 14 were built in China.
Furthermore, as vessels below 4,000 TEUs are exempt from the fees, this leaves a very small subset of just two vessels that are built in China and are over 4,000 TEUs and are thus subject to the vessel fees.
Sea-Intelligence’s report noted the new USTR proposal will impact one container vessel operated by Matson, and one operated by SM Line, representing 10% and 9% of their 2025-Q1 deployment on the Transpacific, and only 4% of the total vessels deployed on the Transpacific by the niche carriers in the first three months of the year.
Presumably, both niche carriers would be able to replace their boxship with one not built in China, or alternatively, spread the USTR fee for the one vessel across their fleet.
On the other hand, Hede Shipping—a Chinese carrier subject to a separate surcharge solely due to its Chinese ownership—is ineligible for exemptions granted to vessels with a capacity under 4,000 TEUs.
According to the analysis, this means that if the proposal is implemented, Hede Shipping will face an average fee of US$667,000 per voyage to the U.S. starting in October 2025. This amount is expected to rise to approximately US$1.9 million per voyage by April 2028, when the surcharge is fully phased in.
“Effectively, this would likely result in Hede Shipping having to cease operations on the Transpacific into the United States,” pointed out Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
