The potential strike on all United States East Coast and Gulf ports is expected to cause severe disruptions in the global supply chain, creating a major headache for shipping stakeholders worldwide.
With operations at 36 major US ports—handling 40-50% of the nation’s imports and exports—facing a potential shutdown on 1 October, the global shipping industry is on edge.
“If the strike does occur, we have reason to envision a detrimental effect on shippers of US-bound goods,” says Han Deng, transportation partner at law firm Reed Smith. “Not only will there be a potential surge in freight costs, but we also anticipate it impacting the ability of retailers to meet the demand for winter holiday operations in the US.”
Notably, in 2023, a one-day shutdown of US West Coast ports caused delays lasting three weeks, with dwell times increasing by up to 148%, according to supply chain platform Project44. Reports suggest that the potential strike on the East Coast could last longer, possibly weeks. Project44 estimates that recovery could take 4-6 weeks for every week of port closures. Similarly, Danish data firm Sea Intelligence predicts that a one-day strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) would take five days to clear.
“The effect of such a strike could last long even after it is resolved, with the disruptions mentioned above taking weeks or months to recover, in a high inflation economy with regional conflicts and geopolitical uncertainty,” commneted Deng.
With peak shipping season already underway, Project44 analysts believe it’s too late to divert cargo volumes to the West Coast, jeopardizing holiday inventory and pricing.
Deng also highlighted that the port of New York and New Jersey will be among the most severely affected by the strike. According to nonprofit research group Mitre, the major US port could lose approximately US$640 million per day.
“It is no surprise, then, that the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey is trying to increase operations as much as possible ahead of the looming deadline,” pointed out the transportation lawyer. “This includes encouraging shippers to delivery as much cargo as possible and coordinating with partners across the supply chain.”
According to the port authority, approximately US$240 billion in goods is moved through the port annually.
The lawyer commented, “As we have witnessed massive backlogs at ports, supply chain disruptions, delayed shipping schedules and altered shipping routes through recent history, such as the Covid-19 global pandemic and the March 2024 Baltimore Bridge collapse, similar things would happen again.”
While it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between eras, it’s worth noting that the last ILA strike on the US East Coast, in 1977, brought ports to a standstill for 44 days.
